What does the latest Metawatch article tell us about the current state of the game?
Here’s the short answer: the game is in a much better place than it was only a few weeks ago. Indeed, this is the most balanced that the game has looked since the beginning of the edition.
While there has been quite significant changes across multiple factions, two armies in particular have clearly had a dramatic change in fortunes: the T’au Empire and the Leagues of Votann.
When the first win rates were released for 10th, the T’au and the Votann were way down at the wrong end of the list. The T’au were second last with a win rate of 38 percent, and the Votann were dead last with a win rate of 35 percent.
And how are these two factions doing now? It’s a much rosier picture. The T’au are fifth from the top with a win rate of 53 percent, and the Votann are third from the top with a win rate of 54 percent.
In my article last week, I argued that Games Workshop overdid it a little bit with the changes to the T’au index, but this Metawatch article illustrates otherwise. If a faction is in the 45 – 55 bracket, GW has done a good job. It stands to reason that some factions are going to be at the top of the bracket other factions will be at the bottom — the nearer a faction gets to a 50 percent win rate the better, of course — but overall the main goal is that a faction be in the bracket.
There is still more to be done, of course. I would argue that, while there are plenty of strong datasheets available, the faction is too reliant upon Commanders and Crisis Suits to get the business done in the shooting phase.
What’s more, there is very little incentive for T’au players to take anything other than Cyclic Ion Blasters on these models, especially in competitive games. The Plasma Rifle does have some play, but, all things considered, the CIB is the way to go.
I’d like to see this change for a couple of reasons. First, it would be more interesting for the game as a whole to see more variety with Crisis Suits, but with the way that points work at the moment, there is virtually no incentive to take the Burst Cannon, Fusion Blaster, Flamer, Missile Pod, or Airbursting Fragmentation Projector. This is a shame.
Discussing how these weapons could be improved is a topic for another article, but, needless to say, they really need it.
Second, in order to really put the damage on big targets, the T’au player must overcharge his CIBs, which, on average, will result in nine mortal wounds on his unit of Crisis Suits, killing one and taking another down to three wounds.
I would argue that this is a very un-T’au way of doing things. Generally speaking, the Empire values its warriors higher than that. Generally speaking. Again, that’s a topic for another article.
However, things are pretty good for the Empire at the moment, so let’s move on.
Indeed, I would argue that the broader picture is more important, and I think we need to hand it to GW here. The target faction win rate is between 45 and 55 percent. At the time of writing, only three factions fall outside of this bracket: Aeldari, Orks, and Drukhari. This illustrates, then, that the Balance Dataslate updates to the game a few weeks ago were mostly on the money.
Not only do most factions fall into the desired win rate, but the overall range has been brought down as well. The best faction, Aeldari, now have a win rate of 57 percent. The worst faction, Drukhari, have a win rate of 44 percent. Compare these points to the previous dataset: Aeldari were way out in front with a win rate of 67 percent, and, as I mentioned earlier, the Votann were sitting at the bottom with a win rate of 35 percent.
Simply put, this means that the game is not only in a good place at the moment but that we’re also heading in the right direction. The ideal is for every faction to be on a 50 percent win rate. That won’t happen, but that’s not really the point. An ideal is never reached. An ideal is something towards which we constantly strive.
Game balance is difficult. Something will no doubt come along in the next few weeks or so that changes things yet again. There’s no finish line when it comes to this sort of thing. As long as 40k exists, GW will need to work on the game balance.
I’ll finish by pointing out that things could be a lot worse. At the moment, the Drukhari are struggling a little, but there was a time way back in 4th and 5th edition when the Drukhari — or the Dark Eldar as they were known back then — hadn’t had a new codex in years. This was a time way before indexes and online rules updates, of course.
But now, players only have to wait a few months for updates to their faction. It might not be a brand new codex and brand new models, but GW will certainly spend some time with the factions that need the attention one way or the other.
The game is in a pretty good place right now.
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