The Las Vegas Open is coming up upon us, and with around an expected 60 players is shaping up to be the largest A Song of Ice and Fire tournament in the Americas yet (I believe there are still a few tickets available for any last minute participants). I wanted to take a look at the expected powerful list archetypes that we are sure to see present there, and offer a few tips to counter them. For anyone wanting to look at the data themselves, ASOIAF-Stats.com collects data from thousands of casual and tournament games, and is the software that will be used to run the tournament.
The Free Folk
The Free Folk are the most favored faction to win and do well. The dominant list archetype is Mance Rayder commander with an army of Raiders, Trappers, and Frozen Shore Chariots, coming in at 10-11 activations. You may see the occasional units of Thenn Warriors and the giant Mag the Mighty. There are other good commanders too, such as Styr, Varamyr, the Great Walrus, and Harma. Free Folk win by out-activating their opponents and alpha striking, out-scoring opponents by having more units to sit on objectives, and by Raiders, their most common unit, not giving up victory points when killed.
To counter Free Folk, you will want to have a plan for the tactics card Endless Horde, as stopping the 2 free Free Folk Raider units is vital. Taking the Maneuver zone on the tactics board before the Free Folk player is a sure way to at least delay the card. All factions except Starks and Neutrals have some other way to delay or block this card. The second crucial card to block is There’s Too Many. It can be used to easily alpha strike a unit through panic. All factions have a way to mitigate this card through panic re-roll or auto-pass abilities and card cancels.
If you have a plan for those cards, how do you win? Winning by combat is hard as Free Folk Raiders do not give up victory points. If you can kill a different unit, such as an overextended Chariot, do it, but your main win condition is winning on objectives. You will usually want lists with at least 5 combat units to do this, although 4 good units can hold the majority of objectives on certain game modes. A 2 NCU list can potentially help here in that it can force the Free Folk player to be the attacker in certain game modes (if you block Endless Horde), but that comes with the disadvantage of giving the Free Folk player 3 tactics zones all game.
The Night’s Watch
The Night’s Watch have strong units and a strong tactics deck that buffs their units. They have a very good 9 activation army with Jon Snow commander, thanks largely to the Watch Captain attachment and Coldhands solo. The typical list will have a mix of 2 Ranger Hunters or Sworn Brothers with Watch Captains, Jon in either Conscripts or Ranger Hunters, Coldhands, and Ghost. 2 NCUs is more common than other factions but you will still see 3. The list will typically out-activate opponents and try to bury the opponent with the weight of dice from attacks.
The Night’s Watch can be countered in several ways. Lance Cavalry will do a lot of damage to Ranger Hunters and Conscripts. Killing Coldhands is sometimes a waste of time, so be careful as he could re-appear behind one of your units. There are several abilities that can shut off the Watch Captain, and all factions have access to at least one. Canceling the card And Now His Watch Has Ended is important, as if it is in play, it will make you pay for killing one of their units, and one of Jon Snow’s commander cards combined with Coldhands and Qhorin Halfhand NCU can set it off intentionally with little cost to the Night’s Watch player.
House Martell
As a new release, House Martell is going to be popular. They also have a very powerful tactics deck and army with Harmen Uller commander and Doran Martell NCU. This list generally relies on 2 Bolton Flayed Men, or 1 Flayed Men and 1 Royal Guard to be good targets for the card Battle Endurance. The plan is to out-wait the opponent, score as many victory points from the scenario, and go on the offensive if needed near the end of the game. If left unchecked, Doran NCU can score up to 6 victory points by round 6. There are hard counters to Doran NCU, and you can usually keep him down to only scoring 2, but that usually comes at the cost of giving up battlefield control. If you are tied or down in victory points in the later rounds, the Martell player will have a large advantage with cards that debuff your units and buff their units, with the added pressure of Doran NCU.
Countering Martells involves countering the several cards and Doran NCU. All factions have at least some way to mess with Doran NCU, with a few hard counters. Rising Temperatures is probably the most important card to counter, although Unbent, Unbowed, Unbroken; Cunning Ploy, Dune Tactics, and Battle Endurance are all really strong cards that you would want to stop. The most card-canceling build, a Roose Bolton Lannister army with Tyrion NCU, will only be able to stop 5 out of these 10 cards, so choose wisely. Lance cavalry partially negate Dune Tactics, so Starks, Lannisters, and Renly side Baratheons will have some advantage there.
I believe these are the top 3 factions with the right builds, but the game is well balanced so any faction could place high or even win with a skilled player. Planning for the most powerful matchups will give you a leg up no matter what faction you are playing. It is also important to remember that the real fun of tournaments is the friends we make along the way. See you there.
by Jesse