Thought for the Day: Cherokee Edition
**Ignorance is your best defence**
So, by special request I’m writing a daily recap as we get through the Cherokee Open, you’ll see some coverage to the weekly articles but tailored to a daily format. I’ll see about pulling out some of the big matches as we get deeper into the Day 2 and the Finals on Sunday. I’ll also do a round-by-round breakdown of Day 3 complete with pairings.
My Predictions for the event:
– Tau and Custodes make up the majority of Day 3 Armies
– A Custodes player wins
– No Tyranids players make it to Day 3
– Jack Harpster or Ryan Snyder take the trophy
On Day Day three we will check in one last time and see how I’m doing with my predictions.
Here’s the day one breakdown including who will be moving onto Day 3
| Placing | Player | Faction |
| 1 | Jack Harpster | T’au Empire |
| 2 | Joseph Clark | Custodes |
| 3 | Sean Rice | T’au Empire |
| 4 | Anthony Birdsong | Custodes |
| 5 | Jesse Carmack | Custodes |
| 6 | Joseph Gillespie | Tyranids |
| 7 | Quinton Johnson | T’au Empire |
| 8 | Ryan Snyder | Custodes |
So, my predictions didn’t come entirely true, one Tyranids player must’ve seen my recap and gotten really mad at me for saying Tyranids wouldn’t make Day three and lo and behold Joseph Gillespie made it placing 6th going into final day of the Cherokee Open. Otherwise, I think we all know that this data is relatively disappointing from a stats perspective we have half of the top-8 as one faction (Custodes) and then nearly have as one other faction (T’au Empire) with one lone faction making up a very homogenous final day. I think my bold prediction that a Custodes player wins the Cherokee open is seemingly not that far-fetched.
| Faction | # Players | % Rep | Win Rate |
| Adeptus Custodes | 26 | 14.9% | 69.8% |
| T’au Empire | 17 | 9.8% | 68.6% |
| Drukhari | 7 | 4.0% | 61.5% |
| Chaos | 2 | 1.1% | 58.3% |
| Ultramarines | 2 | 1.1% | 58.3% |
| Tyranids | 9 | 5.2% | 48.9% |
| Orks | 13 | 7.5% | 47.8% |
| Necrons | 14 | 8.0% | 39.9% |
| Thousand Sons | 10 | 5.7% | 33.0% |
Here are your overall meta representation and win rates for Cherokee broken down by faction. I pulled the top 5 performing factions and then pulled the remaining most represented factions at the event (there are quite a few sub 7 player factions at the event). We can definitely see that a) there are lots of T’au and Custodes and b) that their win-rate has separated them quite substantially from the rest of the pack at the event.
On the match-up and games front. I wanted to pull out that Ryan Snyder who is in 8th place took his only loss to FLGN’s own Seth Oster who went a decisive 5-1 but fell just shy of the cut off for the top 8 to make it into day 3 of the tournament. However, major kudos to Seth for taking on, and defeating, the 3rd placed player entering Day 2.
Come back tomorrow for a break down of the end of day 3 with the round by round pairings and results. Then during the week I’ll do a full statistics breakdown for both the Cherokee Open and the rest of the events from the weekend (of which there were quite a few). So stay tuned faithful liste- I mean readers.
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