With the latest set of codices now on the shelves, it’s time to start breaking down what units and options are going to be right for your list!
While playing test games is the best way to understand your options, it’s hard to get in enough games to understand all the variables at play and arrive at a reasonable set of expectations. Have no fear though! I am here to help by giving you an in depth look at what you should really expect out of a unit or piece of wargear.
Guest Writer: ligolski
My Shtick
I will look at a unit and their wargear options and help you understand what is the best choice for a given situation or at least help you figure out what you can truly expect from your units. I achieve this by simulating 1,000,000 iterations of that unit attacking a set of common targets that are representative of things you will see in the meta and get a true sample population so we can not only understand the mean of the expected outcome, but also how the variance shapes the outcome distribution. This will give you a much better appreciation for the variability in your game. If you have any questions on my process, ask away!
Ridgerunner Heavy Mining Laser vs. Achilles Missile Launcher
With the Genestealer Cult codex fresh on the scene, one of my favorite units in the codex has gotten more interesting: The Ridgerunner! It has two juicy options: the Heavy Mining Laser (HML) and the Achilles Missile Launcher (AML). The question that comes to mind once you read their stats is:
What weapon option should I give my Ridgerunners: Heavy Mining Laser or Achilles Missile Launcher? Will Crossfire and Exposed matter in this choice?
BEEP BEEP!
Let’s breakdown the weapon stats:
| Weapon | Shots | Strength | AP | Dmg |
| HML | D3 | 9 | 3 | D6 |
| AML | 3 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
The HML brings in a highly variable setup with variable shots and variable damage output, while the AML brings dependable output and damage. Both rock an excellent AP3, and either option costs the same, a scant 80 points total per model and can be taken in squads of three! Clearly, the HML is meant for tank hunting, but could excel in going after elite models as well. The AML is meant for elite model hunting, but might be able to help against light to medium vehicles with the dependability it brings. To round out our attacker information, the Ridgerunner is BS4 and able to gain the crossfire (+1 hit) and exposed (+1 wound) bonuses that are new to this rendition of GSC.
The Simulation Begins…
Given the interesting differences in the wargear of the Ridgerunner, lets breakdown how a squad of three will fair against two common target profiles in the game: a Redemptor dreadnought and Blightlord Terminators. This represents typical hard to kill vehicles and elite infantry units, both with the all too common -1 damage. This will help us understand how variability vs. dependability will fare out when it really matters in a game with these weapons.
Let’s start out with targeting the Redemptor: toughness 7, 3+ save with -1 damage. For both weapons we will examine the unbuffed baseline, +1 to hit via Crossfire, and +1 to hit with +1 to wound with Crossfire plus Exposed bonuses.
First up is the Heavy Mining Laser:
Three HML’s can output some serious potential damage. We should note that the single most likely result of an unbuffed squad though, is to do ZERO damage, but, in general, ~85% of the time you will do damage. As we add buffs, the results start to normalize in distribution, smoothing out the probability of doing zero wounds and boosting the mean damage out further. Fully buffed here, the chance of doing zero wounds drops to less than 5%.
Let’s look at the Achilles Missile Launcher now:
As we can see, the distribution of results for the AML is very different from the HML in that the distribution is less continuous due to the flat damage where we only get damage in multiples of two thanks to the Redemptor’s -1 to damage. This requires both sets of bonuses to even beat the unbuffed HML, which is unfortunate. I love depending on consistency when I can, but the ability for the HML to potentially swing big allows them to outperform the AMLs more often than not against a Redemptor or similar target. For reference below is the probability to kill the Redemptor in one turn with this setup.
| Chance to Kill Redemptor in One Turn | |||
| Weapon | Baseline | Crossfire | Crossfire+Exposed |
| HML | 3.1% | 7.1% | 13.3% |
| AML | 0.00% | 0.02% | 0.20% |
Note, your chance to one shot the Redemptor increases by quite a lot if fully buffed when using the HML, while the AML will never do it.
Round 1 goes to the HML! Next up is examining the output against the Blightlord Terminators! These guys are super tough with a solid toughness 5, 2+, 4++ and -1 damage with three wounds each. For these results, we will examine models destroyed rather than just damage dealt. When I simulate this, I actually take order of damage into account, so it’s not always the optimal assortment of damage to chew through models, but rather accounts for the concepts of over and under killing a model. This is something that is harder to determine the probability for, but where the simulation methodology shines in helping to shed light on the values. As a result there is also the possibility partially wounded models to be left over. For simplicity I made no distinction between 1 dead guy and 1.33 dead guys, preferring to only account for fully destroyed models.
First up is the HML results:
WOW! On average, it takes a full buffed squad of HMLs to kill a single model…that is incredibly saddening. If you are buffed, you will generally be killing at least one guy most of the time, but chances to fail to do anything exceed 30% even in the fully buffed case.
What about the AML:
AMLs appear to perform better than the HML against elite infantry at first glance. The consistency and similar ability to wound as the HML, means the AML performs better at each stage of different buffs. This is especially clear, when you consider the Crossfire buff comparison, where the HML has a dominating chance to do nothing whereby the AML has the best chance to kill one model. The consistency of damage will help prevent non-optimal damage from being applied, allowing the AHM to more consistently kill at least one model. However, due to the inability of the AHM to put out anymore than just 2 damage per shot, it is virtually incapable of killing a unit of three Blightlord Terminators in one turn. For reference below is the probability of killing a three man squad of blightlord terminators in one turn.
| Chance to Kill 3 Blightlord Terminators in One Turn | |||
| Weapon | Baseline | Crossfire | Crossfire+Exposed |
| HML | 1.3% | 2.8% | 5.3% |
| AML | 0.1% | 0.5% | 1.7% |
Against less nasty targets, I’d imagine the AHM to appear superior to the HML for targets such as basic marines and other T5 baddies that don’t have -1 damage. Other things to consider when outfitting the Ridgerunner is two strategems it has access to: Raking Fire (1cp) for reroll hits if exposed and crossfired and Overload Fuel Cells (1cp) for +1 damage for the Heavy Mining Laser. Given that last stratagem, equal cost of the model, and analysis done above, I’d almost certainly recommend the Heavy Mining Laser to help fill your anti-tank and anti-elite needs. However, I would gander that there is a meta where the missile will shine given its dependable stats. At the same time, given how cheap the silly thing is, why not take 2-3 squads of three Ridgerunners and kit some both ways…BEEP BEEP!
There you have it! I hope this sheds some light onto the choice between the Heavy Mining Laser and Achilles Missile Launcher. Don’t forget that the math here doesn’t give the whole picture! There are many layers to building a list and using your units correctly.
Let me know if you have any questions, comments or concerns with any of the results you have seen here! And of course, I welcome all suggestions for future simulations!
Until next time,
ligolski
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