Eric Lofgren from Variance Hammer brings us a statistical analysis of the LVO 2014.
The next few posts are all entitled “Requiem for an Edition”, and will be taking a statistical look at the results of the Las Vegas Open, a major tournament taking place in early February of this year. It was originally intended to be a look at the “current” meta of the game, but a very busy March and then the rapid release of the new edition has made it more of a looking back. Never the less, I think it’s a worthwhile exercise, for two reasons discussed below.
- It serves as a record of “the meta” in late 6th Edition of Warhammer 40K, as far as any one tournament can be regarded as accurately capturing everything. It is, in essence, a bit of the game’s history. It lets us actually see how big of a problem allies were, if Taudar really strode across the battlefields, or Gaming Mats as the case may be, like unstoppable titans. It allows for a numeric, data driven picture of that 6th Ed. looked like, rather than relying on the greybeards of the future to tell us all stories.
- It serves as an example of what I’d like to to in the future with 7th Edition.
So there you have it. What follows is my poking and prodding at the LVO results, as they interest me.
A note on statistical testing: There are only 194 players in the LVO, and as such, only 194 data points. As with many analyses in the real world, there is very little we can do to increase our statistical power and as such, null results should be taken with a grain of salt. Wherever possible, I will also provide effect estimates, averages, etc. as well as the results of statistical tests – because it’s just good practice.
My hope, with 7th Edition, is to take a somewhat more long-term approach, and actually use a number of tournaments, as they occur, to essentially create a rolling “pooled” analysis, that not only dramatically increases the sample size we can work with, but can show how the meta evolves and changes over time.
Next Post: How Big of a Deal Are Allies?
I honestly think this will help tournament officials decide what units are allowed and what limitations need to be set if done correctly. I have to say, its a hell of a task and I wouldn’t want to do it, but more power to ya.
The idea of it being an ongoing thing makes it progressive and reactive to the current meta, allowing officials to adapt. Its the hand we were dealt as competitive players. It has the potential to be as great, if not greater than 6th, if officials and organizers take the offensive we can create such variety of tournament winning lists.
A silly thing, but unless it was deliberate; edition has one ‘d’, not two. (I get a little OCD about spelling, you see, despite a quote from T. Jefferson to the effect that a man who can only a spell a word one way is a poor thinker.
But, the requiem will be interesting.
That would be CDO. Alphabetical, like it SHOULD be.